The AI Hype Cycle: When It Really Took Off

In recent times, the presence of artificial intelligence in news headlines seems inescapable. This surge in AI-related news is not merely an illusion. According to Zach Perkel, Principal and Director of Applied AI at Fractal, we are amid a significant peak in AI interest, particularly on platforms like Hacker News.

Perkel conducted an analysis of approximately 24,910 articles and posts from Y Combinator’s Hacker News to measure AI's momentum from January 1, 2019, to August 15, 2025. His findings reveal a dramatic tenfold increase in AI-related posts appearing in the platform's top 10 stories. The data signifies a substantial growth from only 39 AI-driven posts in the first quarter of 2019 to a striking 337 posts by the third quarter of 2025.

This escalating trend is unsurprising given the rapid rise of AI tools like ChatGPT. Notably, a marked spike occurred between late 2022, following the release of ChatGPT on November 30, and early 2023. During this period, AI-related stories on Hacker News nearly doubled, from 89 in the last quarter of 2022 to 174 in the first quarter of 2023. This increase reflects the transformation of AI from a niche interest to a dominant discussion topic.

Hacker News, often frequented by tech enthusiasts rather than novices, has shown a distinct shift in AI sentiment. Noteworthy is the rise in negative sentiment; the current quarter has witnessed 42% of AI posts being critical. Comparatively, only 27% of posts were negative in early 2025, which ascended to 36% as the year progressed.

The data underscores an evolving public discourse surrounding AI, hinting at a potential bubble. Despite uncertainty about when it might burst, it's evident there’s a perceptible shift in the collective AI outlook.