When the AI Hype Cycle Truly Began

It's hard to ignore the omnipresence of artificial intelligence (AI) in today's news cycle. If you're feeling like AI discussions are becoming unavoidable, you're not alone. According to Zach Perkel, the Principal and Director of Applied AI at Fractal, a noticeable surge in AI-related stories has been dominating top spots on Y Combinator’s Hacker News, an indicator of us reaching a peak in AI interest.

Perkel's investigation examined 24,910 articles from January 2019 to August 2025 on Hacker News. The research highlights a staggering increase in AI discussions— a tenfold rise from 39 AI posts in early 2019 to 337 stories within the third quarter of 2025, which isn't even complete yet. This highlights just how much the conversation has sped up post-ChatGPT.

Data from Perkel points out that a dramatic spike in AI interest was observed between Q4 2022, coinciding with ChatGPT’s public release, and Q1 2023, marking a transition where the AI chatbot became the central interface between AI and the public. This period saw a leap from 89 AI stories in Q4 2022 to 174 stories by Q1 2023. Yet, the jump between Q2 2025 and Q3 2025 is on track to become the largest recorded.

Hacker News isn't exactly novice territory, so the rising skepticism reflected in a growing percentage of negative AI posts this quarter is noteworthy. After ChatGPT's debut, negative sentiment regarding AI has never been as high as in the current quarter, with 42% of posts expressing criticism.

This shift in sentiment reflects deeper concerns within the tech community. In early 2025, only 27% of top AI posts were negative, climbing to 36% in the following quarter. This occurs amid concerns of an AI bubble and a possible shift in how AI is perceived, even as companies like OpenAI near substantial valuations.